I both think and hope that you’re right and a smallpox outbreak could be easily contained, but I’m not confident enough in this to be unconcerned. If large amounts were released to overwhelm the system, this could cause a lot of death, particularly in urban areas. I would be particularly concerned if I lived in a crowded slum/favela, because I imagine smallpox could rapidly spread through the populace before quarantine efforts could do much.
Another thing is that smallpox symptoms appear flu-like for the first several days of the infection. During this period it’s quite contagious. It’s plausible that, in the case of smallpox being released, people will assume it’s just a respiratory illness (“Whew, looks like I tested negative for Covid!”) and spread it before the characteristic pustules appear and the authorities react. (Disclaimer: I am not an epidemiologist, merely a concerned citizen)
I both think and hope that you’re right and a smallpox outbreak could be easily contained, but I’m not confident enough in this to be unconcerned. If large amounts were released to overwhelm the system, this could cause a lot of death, particularly in urban areas. I would be particularly concerned if I lived in a crowded slum/favela, because I imagine smallpox could rapidly spread through the populace before quarantine efforts could do much.
Another thing is that smallpox symptoms appear flu-like for the first several days of the infection. During this period it’s quite contagious. It’s plausible that, in the case of smallpox being released, people will assume it’s just a respiratory illness (“Whew, looks like I tested negative for Covid!”) and spread it before the characteristic pustules appear and the authorities react. (Disclaimer: I am not an epidemiologist, merely a concerned citizen)