Although it’s been a while since I wrote this, and I don’t remember exactly what was going through my head when I did, I think I can clarify some of the topics you’ve brought up.
You conflate what would happen in a typical outbreak with what would be likely to happen in an biological attack.
I certainly agree that there are relevant and important differences between an accidental release of smallpox and an intentional release! I think the main point I was trying to make here was that both are scary, and, at an individual level, vaccination protects against both.
The WHO’s DNA sequence is NOT widely available. The sequence is tightly controlled by the WHO and researchers are not allowed to access more than a small percent of the whole sequence, I believe it’s 20%. Their copy isn’t that important except as potential disinformation vector.
That’s interesting! Could you provide a reference for that? I can’t seem to find any corroboration. My guess is that the 20% figure actually refers to the amount of the genome that scientists are allowed to have synthesized, not how much of the genome data they can access.
Hindsight is 20⁄20, and you were obviously wrong to get vaccinated in 2023, because we can all now agree you were too early.
Sorry, could you clarify? Are you claiming it’s better to be vaccinated now than it was back then? Or was this kinda tongue-in-cheek?
It is scary, even if you’re vaccinated. Fear is great for motivating people, but not really great for getting people to act rationally in an emergency. Invoking terror would be part of the objective of the attack, and being clear headed and rational can mitigate the impact.
To think about what would happen in a disease event, you would want to know the Reproductive Number (R), the incubation period, and the fatality rate. I think those are about 6, 14 days and 30% respectively. Herd immunity would occur when around 5 in 6 people were had immunity, then the event would stop.
One case of smallpox would be an international emergency, but something that could be managed.
If a group managed to suspend CDC testing, and DHS monitoring, and infect a few million people, that scenario could ONLY be managed with mass quarantine.
DA Henderson wrote a guide for healthcare professionals for what to do in the event of a manageable smallpox bioterror event with more clinical information. Care would likely not take place in hospitals for very long. There is also a chapter on mass quarantine in the same issue.
No laboratory, other than the designated smallpox WHO global repositories, shall be permitted to hold variola virus DNA representing more than 20% of the variola virus genome at any one time (2).
Fragments of variola virus DNA for diagnostic kits, not exceeding 500 base pairs in length, may be freely distributed for use as positive controls or standards in diagnostic kits, providing collectively they do not exceed 20% of the total genome size held by any entity (4, 5).
In Richard Preston’s The Demon in the Freezer, Superpox Chapter, he says it’s limited at 10%, but he wrote that book in 2002, and the current restrictions are from 2016.
The existence of the common DNA sequence with the WHO just will just give bad actors material for conspiracy theories and state propaganda narratives.
Sorry, could you clarify? Are you claiming it’s better to be vaccinated now than it was back then? Or was this kinda tongue-in-cheek?
Yes, a little tongue-in-cheek. I think the jury is still out on how effective the JYNNEOS vaccine will turn out to be. A recent vaccine might presumably provide more protection, but it’s way better than not being vaccinated at all.
Even without vaccine, there is a lot of hope for managing an event with masks, handwashing and strict quarantine protocols. Good information (as well as disinformation) can travel much faster than a virus.
Although it’s been a while since I wrote this, and I don’t remember exactly what was going through my head when I did, I think I can clarify some of the topics you’ve brought up.
I certainly agree that there are relevant and important differences between an accidental release of smallpox and an intentional release! I think the main point I was trying to make here was that both are scary, and, at an individual level, vaccination protects against both.
That’s interesting! Could you provide a reference for that? I can’t seem to find any corroboration. My guess is that the 20% figure actually refers to the amount of the genome that scientists are allowed to have synthesized, not how much of the genome data they can access.
Sorry, could you clarify? Are you claiming it’s better to be vaccinated now than it was back then? Or was this kinda tongue-in-cheek?
It is scary, even if you’re vaccinated. Fear is great for motivating people, but not really great for getting people to act rationally in an emergency. Invoking terror would be part of the objective of the attack, and being clear headed and rational can mitigate the impact.
To think about what would happen in a disease event, you would want to know the Reproductive Number (R), the incubation period, and the fatality rate. I think those are about 6, 14 days and 30% respectively. Herd immunity would occur when around 5 in 6 people were had immunity, then the event would stop.
One case of smallpox would be an international emergency, but something that could be managed.
If a group managed to suspend CDC testing, and DHS monitoring, and infect a few million people, that scenario could ONLY be managed with mass quarantine.
DA Henderson wrote a guide for healthcare professionals for what to do in the event of a manageable smallpox bioterror event with more clinical information. Care would likely not take place in hospitals for very long. There is also a chapter on mass quarantine in the same issue.
On the fraction of DNA available, The WHO says:
https://iris.who.int/server/api/core/bitstreams/474cb0d6-76d1-42c1-a39b-e167b0e770ee/content
In Richard Preston’s The Demon in the Freezer, Superpox Chapter, he says it’s limited at 10%, but he wrote that book in 2002, and the current restrictions are from 2016.
The existence of the common DNA sequence with the WHO just will just give bad actors material for conspiracy theories and state propaganda narratives.
Yes, a little tongue-in-cheek. I think the jury is still out on how effective the JYNNEOS vaccine will turn out to be. A recent vaccine might presumably provide more protection, but it’s way better than not being vaccinated at all.
Even without vaccine, there is a lot of hope for managing an event with masks, handwashing and strict quarantine protocols. Good information (as well as disinformation) can travel much faster than a virus.