I think it’s important, on the GDP questions, to distinguish nominal vs real (aka output) growth. Nominal growth has been very stable, and in fact via policy we can keep it very stable under most circumstances. Real growth is harder to measure accurately, and the way we do so has some issues with handling the value generated by products that increase in quality for a given cost or decrease in cost for a given quality over time. If AI generates a lot of value, let’s say dectupling total output, and then the AI falls in cost by a factor of 1000, what’s the effect on (nominal) GDP? Is that the right question for understanding the impact on people’s lives?
I think it’s important, on the GDP questions, to distinguish nominal vs real (aka output) growth. Nominal growth has been very stable, and in fact via policy we can keep it very stable under most circumstances. Real growth is harder to measure accurately, and the way we do so has some issues with handling the value generated by products that increase in quality for a given cost or decrease in cost for a given quality over time. If AI generates a lot of value, let’s say dectupling total output, and then the AI falls in cost by a factor of 1000, what’s the effect on (nominal) GDP? Is that the right question for understanding the impact on people’s lives?