I appreciate you registering your falsifiable predictions on a public forum.
[Putin would] have preferred it to be easy. But a hard fight can be spun as just showing that Ukraine was a credible security threat that needed to be taken down.
I believe precisely the opposite. I will take the reverse side of your prediction. I am confident Putin cannot sell a hard fight in Ukraine to the Russian people using the logic “Ukraine’s fierce resistance to the Russian invasion proves Ukraine was a credible security threat”. (More generally, I predict Putin cannot sell a hard fight in Ukraine to the Russian people at all. (Coercion doesn’t count.))
Consider this comment to be a public, registered counter-prediction.
I appreciate you registering your falsifiable predictions on a public forum.
I believe precisely the opposite. I will take the reverse side of your prediction. I am confident Putin cannot sell a hard fight in Ukraine to the Russian people using the logic “Ukraine’s fierce resistance to the Russian invasion proves Ukraine was a credible security threat”. (More generally, I predict Putin cannot sell a hard fight in Ukraine to the Russian people at all. (Coercion doesn’t count.))
Consider this comment to be a public, registered counter-prediction.