South Korea will be paying reunification costs for at least the next decade or so.
Far longer than that. (West) Germany is apparently still effectively subsidizing (former) East Germany, more than 2 decades after unification—and I have read that West & East Germany were much closer in terms of development than North & South Korea are now. For the total costs of reunification, ‘trillions’ is probably the right order of magnitude to be looking at (even though it would eventually more than pay for itself, never mind the moral dimension).
I quite agree, on both parts. 25 million new consumers, catch-up growth, road networks from Seoul to Beijing, navigable waters, less political risk premium, etc.
It’s a gloomy picture though. A coup seems unlikely (given the Kim-religion) and it’ll probably be 2050-70 until Jong-un dies. I’ve got two hopes: the recent provocation is aimed at a domestic audience, and once he’s proved himself he’ll pull a Burma; or the international community doesn’t blink and resume aid, forcing them into some sort of opening. Not very high hopes though.
To expand: a massive burst of cheap labor, a peace dividend in winding down both militaries (on top of the reduction in risk premium) such as closing down military bases taking valuable Seoul-area real estate, and access to all NK’s mineral and natural resources.
Far longer than that. (West) Germany is apparently still effectively subsidizing (former) East Germany, more than 2 decades after unification—and I have read that West & East Germany were much closer in terms of development than North & South Korea are now. For the total costs of reunification, ‘trillions’ is probably the right order of magnitude to be looking at (even though it would eventually more than pay for itself, never mind the moral dimension).
I quite agree, on both parts. 25 million new consumers, catch-up growth, road networks from Seoul to Beijing, navigable waters, less political risk premium, etc.
It’s a gloomy picture though. A coup seems unlikely (given the Kim-religion) and it’ll probably be 2050-70 until Jong-un dies. I’ve got two hopes: the recent provocation is aimed at a domestic audience, and once he’s proved himself he’ll pull a Burma; or the international community doesn’t blink and resume aid, forcing them into some sort of opening. Not very high hopes though.
To expand: a massive burst of cheap labor, a peace dividend in winding down both militaries (on top of the reduction in risk premium) such as closing down military bases taking valuable Seoul-area real estate, and access to all NK’s mineral and natural resources.