It is not clear whether, for each of your points 1-5, you are saying
“This is definitely true and I have conclusive evidence for it”
“I am confident that this is true but I don’t have evidence that would reliably convince others”
“I think this is probably true”
“This might be true, which given the potential consequences is already enough to be interesting”
something else.
(I’m guessing probably “I think this is probably true”?)
I’m not sure. I think it’s at least 10%.
I don’t really think in terms of beliefs. I think in terms of bets. My confidence is high enough to stake some reputation on a public prediction.
It is not clear whether, for each of your points 1-5, you are saying
“This is definitely true and I have conclusive evidence for it”
“I am confident that this is true but I don’t have evidence that would reliably convince others”
“I think this is probably true”
“This might be true, which given the potential consequences is already enough to be interesting”
something else.
(I’m guessing probably “I think this is probably true”?)
I’m not sure. I think it’s at least 10%.
I don’t really think in terms of beliefs. I think in terms of bets. My confidence is high enough to stake some reputation on a public prediction.