Experience can provide an excellent dummy check to make sure there isn’t an obvious counter-argument or flaw in something that you are unable to see because you haven’t seen it yet. There is much to be said from simply going out there and trying the theory; the results of trying are experience. When you can translate your experience into Bayesian terms you have succeeded.
I have no problem with deferring to someone who has more experience than I do as long as I trust their methodology. Once that trust is gone I start doubting the truth of their experience. I don’t think their experience says what they think it says; they haven’t translated it correctly.
Sometimes in an argument, an older opponent might claim that perhaps as I grow older, my opinions will change, or that I’ll come around on the topic. Implicit in this claim is the assumption that age or quantity of experience is a proxy for legitimate authority. In and of itself, such “life experience” is necessary for an informed rational worldview, but it is not sufficient.
If there is a high rate of conversation as people grow older than it makes sense to predict that you will come around eventually. People here tell me the same thing about my religious beliefs. The consensus is that as I grow older in the Way of Bayes I will eventually identify as atheist. I don’t think this implies the proxy that you mention. Quantity of experience isn’t legitimate authority but if I (a) predict you will change and (b) predict that I am unable to exact the change but rather (c) the change will happen on your own accord sometime in the future than I have no reason to talk to you. Telling you my prediction is halting the conversation, but the real conversation halter is whatever is causing you not to switch now.
But really, in the end, I do agree with you. I ran out of time and had to cut this comment short. Sorry.
Experience can provide an excellent dummy check to make sure there isn’t an obvious counter-argument or flaw in something that you are unable to see because you haven’t seen it yet. There is much to be said from simply going out there and trying the theory; the results of trying are experience. When you can translate your experience into Bayesian terms you have succeeded.
I have no problem with deferring to someone who has more experience than I do as long as I trust their methodology. Once that trust is gone I start doubting the truth of their experience. I don’t think their experience says what they think it says; they haven’t translated it correctly.
If there is a high rate of conversation as people grow older than it makes sense to predict that you will come around eventually. People here tell me the same thing about my religious beliefs. The consensus is that as I grow older in the Way of Bayes I will eventually identify as atheist. I don’t think this implies the proxy that you mention. Quantity of experience isn’t legitimate authority but if I (a) predict you will change and (b) predict that I am unable to exact the change but rather (c) the change will happen on your own accord sometime in the future than I have no reason to talk to you. Telling you my prediction is halting the conversation, but the real conversation halter is whatever is causing you not to switch now.
But really, in the end, I do agree with you. I ran out of time and had to cut this comment short. Sorry.