Of course, this opportunity presents itself every day in the form of sports betting. Sometimes the markets are “wrong” (e.g. yesterday’s Super Bowl), but in the long term, it is pretty hard to beat the sports markets. FWIW, the sportsbook I use currently shows the same odds as intrade (http://www.wsex.com/market/DEMOCRATNOMINEE-2008.html) which makes sense as otherwise someone would arbitrage the difference away.
Of course, this opportunity presents itself every day in the form of sports betting. Sometimes the markets are “wrong” (e.g. yesterday’s Super Bowl), but in the long term, it is pretty hard to beat the sports markets. FWIW, the sportsbook I use currently shows the same odds as intrade (http://www.wsex.com/market/DEMOCRATNOMINEE-2008.html) which makes sense as otherwise someone would arbitrage the difference away.