Although Robin’s critiques of “gotcha” bias are noted, I experienced this as a triumph of learned heuristic over predisposed bias. My gut instinct was to rank accountant+jazz player as more probable than jazz player, and then I thought about the conjunction rule of probability theory.
“The ranking E > C was also displayed by 83% of 32 grad students in the decision science program of Stanford Business School, all of whom had taken advanced courses in probability and statistics.”
This is shocking, particularly if they had more than 30 seconds to make a decision.
Although Robin’s critiques of “gotcha” bias are noted, I experienced this as a triumph of learned heuristic over predisposed bias. My gut instinct was to rank accountant+jazz player as more probable than jazz player, and then I thought about the conjunction rule of probability theory.
“The ranking E > C was also displayed by 83% of 32 grad students in the decision science program of Stanford Business School, all of whom had taken advanced courses in probability and statistics.”
This is shocking, particularly if they had more than 30 seconds to make a decision.