Another thing that can mean is that someone decided correctly, because they did the thing that had the highest expected value, but that led to doing the wrong thing because their beliefs about the world were incorrect and led them to miscalculate expected value. I assume that’s what you mean here.
Again, not quite. It’s possible for someone to accurately determine the expected results of a decision, but the actual results to vary significantly from the expected. Take a typical parimutuel gambling-for-cash scenario; the expected outcome is typically that the house gets a little richer, and all of the gamblers get a little poorer. That outcome literally never happens, according to the rules of the game.
Again, not quite. It’s possible for someone to accurately determine the expected results of a decision, but the actual results to vary significantly from the expected. Take a typical parimutuel gambling-for-cash scenario; the expected outcome is typically that the house gets a little richer, and all of the gamblers get a little poorer. That outcome literally never happens, according to the rules of the game.
I agree, but this seems entirely tangential to the points either of us were making.