You have an explanatory theory that makes predictions about the events, but it is not the only possible explanatory theory. If someone offers to play the bean bag game with you on the street, then things might not be as they seem and your theory would be no good as an explanation of how to bet. Science is like that—what is actually going on might not be what you think, so you look for flaws and realize that one’s confidence is no guide to the truth.
You have an explanatory theory that makes predictions about the events, but it is not the only possible explanatory theory. If someone offers to play the bean bag game with you on the street, then things might not be as they seem and your theory would be no good as an explanation of how to bet. Science is like that—what is actually going on might not be what you think, so you look for flaws and realize that one’s confidence is no guide to the truth.