I agree that more numbers would be better. However, it is worth noting that estimating probabilities for e.g. ubiquitous robotic surgery having more impact on life extension than self-driving cars is a matter of some pretty complex graphing with lots of hidden variables.
What kinds of surgery might become more popular if they were cheaper (how much?) and safer? How does it affect cryonics adoption rates, preventative surgery adoption rates, effectiveness, and so forth? What kinds of economic impacts are to be expected of self-driving cars? How much do the various approaches synergize, such that putting dollars into one is similar in effect to putting dollars into another?
If you believe that these future timescales are so hard to predict, what evidence makes you think that robotics will be particularly valuable as a solution to future problems (as opposed to anything else one could come up with)?
Overall I would rate the possibility that robotic solutions will be useful as high because these are currently seeing enough incremental advancement to be useful. It’s a matter of scaling, ironing out the bugs, overcoming regulatory hurdles, etc. from here. So in my estimation the probability of them being vaporware (in the nearer term) is lower than nanotech, genetic engineering, or AGI.
I agree that more numbers would be better. However, it is worth noting that estimating probabilities for e.g. ubiquitous robotic surgery having more impact on life extension than self-driving cars is a matter of some pretty complex graphing with lots of hidden variables.
What kinds of surgery might become more popular if they were cheaper (how much?) and safer? How does it affect cryonics adoption rates, preventative surgery adoption rates, effectiveness, and so forth? What kinds of economic impacts are to be expected of self-driving cars? How much do the various approaches synergize, such that putting dollars into one is similar in effect to putting dollars into another?
If you believe that these future timescales are so hard to predict, what evidence makes you think that robotics will be particularly valuable as a solution to future problems (as opposed to anything else one could come up with)?
Overall I would rate the possibility that robotic solutions will be useful as high because these are currently seeing enough incremental advancement to be useful. It’s a matter of scaling, ironing out the bugs, overcoming regulatory hurdles, etc. from here. So in my estimation the probability of them being vaporware (in the nearer term) is lower than nanotech, genetic engineering, or AGI.