Let’s say I currently have 1M USD, and I can either:
1. Donate it to orgs working on AI alignment. 2. Invest the money and get returns >> than the stock market.
How big must the expected return of my investment be in what time frame for it to be better than donating right away?
My specific Case
I recently made around 1M USD pre tax, and consider how to best utilize it to decrease AI X-risk. I consider these two options:
Donate 45% to other orgs. Use the other 45% as funding source for a for-profit AI Alignment company, that would do a mix of money making AI endevours (that I will try to make sure doesn’t improve general capabilities), do direct AI Alignment work. Then with time dedicate more and more resources to direct AI Alignment work/donations to other orgs.
Donate only 10%, and use the other 80% as funding for the for-profit AI Alignment company, where the bulk of the additional 35% would go at first mostly into money making endevors.
In both cases, 10% of the money is fun money/cover living expenses.
Let’s say I hypothetically expect to make 10x returns after 5 years on the additional investments into for-profit in scenario 2, would that be a worthy investment?
I do realize that 10x in 5 years might seem unrealistic, but for the sake of discussion I think it is a useful figure, however wrong it might seem.
My Own Estimate
Donating 1 usd today, corresponds roughly to donating (adjusted for inflation):
1.18 usd in one year
1.39 usd in two years
2.39 usd in five years
This is based on a timeline of getting AGI in 15 years, and I simply played around with numbers and this seemed reasonable. I know “playing with numbers” is not a reliable approach, but I haven’t come up with anything better, hence the post here.
[Question] Donate Now vs Donate Later—Relative Value of Donations to AI Alignment
General Case
Let’s say I currently have 1M USD, and I can either:
1. Donate it to orgs working on AI alignment.
2. Invest the money and get returns >> than the stock market.
How big must the expected return of my investment be in what time frame for it to be better than donating right away?
My specific Case
I recently made around 1M USD pre tax, and consider how to best utilize it to decrease AI X-risk. I consider these two options:
Donate 45% to other orgs. Use the other 45% as funding source for a for-profit AI Alignment company, that would do a mix of money making AI endevours (that I will try to make sure doesn’t improve general capabilities), do direct AI Alignment work. Then with time dedicate more and more resources to direct AI Alignment work/donations to other orgs.
Donate only 10%, and use the other 80% as funding for the for-profit AI Alignment company, where the bulk of the additional 35% would go at first mostly into money making endevors.
In both cases, 10% of the money is fun money/cover living expenses.
Let’s say I hypothetically expect to make 10x returns after 5 years on the additional investments into for-profit in scenario 2, would that be a worthy investment?
I do realize that 10x in 5 years might seem unrealistic, but for the sake of discussion I think it is a useful figure, however wrong it might seem.
My Own Estimate
Donating 1 usd today, corresponds roughly to donating (adjusted for inflation):
1.18 usd in one year
1.39 usd in two years
2.39 usd in five years
This is based on a timeline of getting AGI in 15 years, and I simply played around with numbers and this seemed reasonable. I know “playing with numbers” is not a reliable approach, but I haven’t come up with anything better, hence the post here.