I do think you make valid and reasonable points, and I appreciate and commemorate you for that.
Half on capabilities, half on alignment” might end up being neutral to net-negative.
Let’s use 80000 hours conservative estimate that only around 5B usd is spent on capabilities each year, and 50M on AI alignment. That seems worse than 6B USD spent on capabilities, and 1.05B spent on AI alignment.
A half half approach in this case would 20X the alignment research, but only increase capabilities 20%.
high-variance strategy at this stage of the game
This I agree with, I have some ideas but will consult with experts in the field before pursuing any of them.
I do think you make valid and reasonable points, and I appreciate and commemorate you for that.
Let’s use 80000 hours conservative estimate that only around 5B usd is spent on capabilities each year, and 50M on AI alignment. That seems worse than 6B USD spent on capabilities, and 1.05B spent on AI alignment.
A half half approach in this case would 20X the alignment research, but only increase capabilities 20%.
This I agree with, I have some ideas but will consult with experts in the field before pursuing any of them.