This is from back in March, but the CDC found the median time from symptom onset to death was 18 days (5 days from symptom onset to pneumonia, 13 days from pneumonia to death). Add at least three days from infection to symptom onset and you have a three week delay.
There’s also a delay between symptoms and confirmed infections. The July death peak came two weeks after the July confirmed daily infection peak.
Right now two weeks ago we had a 50% CDI increase, but deaths haven’t caught up.
The answer must be a combination of longer time to death and lower IFR (including less at-risk people contracting). I’m hoping it’s more the second but not much update yet.
This is from back in March, but the CDC found the median time from symptom onset to death was 18 days (5 days from symptom onset to pneumonia, 13 days from pneumonia to death). Add at least three days from infection to symptom onset and you have a three week delay.
https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/6/20-0320_article
And again, this was in March. It’s possible that treatment improvements have made this delay longer.
There’s also a delay between symptoms and confirmed infections. The July death peak came two weeks after the July confirmed daily infection peak.
Right now two weeks ago we had a 50% CDI increase, but deaths haven’t caught up.
The answer must be a combination of longer time to death and lower IFR (including less at-risk people contracting). I’m hoping it’s more the second but not much update yet.
Or faster testing!