Just as a check on 0% for a state being allowed to secede, consider this.
What would you put at the probability that there would be sufficient devastation in the eastern seaboard of the US in the next decade from (for example) bio or nuclear attacks or terrorism? If that happened, what would be the probability that the US would be disbanded as a going concern? I realize you would likely assign very small numbers to these possibilities, but possibly > 0%. If you assign >0% to this, then you assign >0% to a state being allowed to secede. (recapitulating an objection voiced to me by Anna Salamon when I made a claim of extremely small probability for some risk or another).
There’s a lot of ruin in a nation. The main axis nations of World War II—Germany, Italy, and Japan—provide some examples of nations that were really, really traumatized and damaged. Out of the three, only Germany split apart, and that only because of competing foreign occupiers. Even then it reunited as soon as it got the chance. I don’t think there’s enough hostility or just plain difference between most of the states west of the Mississippi to cause them to separate, especially under threat of external attack. If anything, I’d expect them to band together as tightly as possible.
I don’t think the US would go away even if the eastern seaboard was nothing but glassy craters and deadly microbes.
That being said, it’s conceivable that some technological or ideological change could weaken the central government to the point that states would be let go, though it’s hard to imagine something that drastic shaping up in as little as 9 years. I’m also not sure what change could happen which would break the federal government while leaving state governments intact.
Ok, though—in a decade, something very odd could happen. I don’t think a lot of people were predicting the dissolution of the USSR before it happened.
Meanwhile, sous vides don’t seem to be a lot cheaper or more popular, but I didn’t put as extreme a probability on that one.
Just as a check on 0% for a state being allowed to secede, consider this.
What would you put at the probability that there would be sufficient devastation in the eastern seaboard of the US in the next decade from (for example) bio or nuclear attacks or terrorism? If that happened, what would be the probability that the US would be disbanded as a going concern? I realize you would likely assign very small numbers to these possibilities, but possibly > 0%. If you assign >0% to this, then you assign >0% to a state being allowed to secede. (recapitulating an objection voiced to me by Anna Salamon when I made a claim of extremely small probability for some risk or another).
There’s a lot of ruin in a nation. The main axis nations of World War II—Germany, Italy, and Japan—provide some examples of nations that were really, really traumatized and damaged. Out of the three, only Germany split apart, and that only because of competing foreign occupiers. Even then it reunited as soon as it got the chance. I don’t think there’s enough hostility or just plain difference between most of the states west of the Mississippi to cause them to separate, especially under threat of external attack. If anything, I’d expect them to band together as tightly as possible.
I don’t think the US would go away even if the eastern seaboard was nothing but glassy craters and deadly microbes.
That being said, it’s conceivable that some technological or ideological change could weaken the central government to the point that states would be let go, though it’s hard to imagine something that drastic shaping up in as little as 9 years. I’m also not sure what change could happen which would break the federal government while leaving state governments intact.
Ok, though—in a decade, something very odd could happen. I don’t think a lot of people were predicting the dissolution of the USSR before it happened.
Meanwhile, sous vides don’t seem to be a lot cheaper or more popular, but I didn’t put as extreme a probability on that one.