I am 75% confident that within ten years, the Bayesian paradigm of AGI will be just yet another more or less useful spinoff of the otherwise failed attempt to build AGI.
I don’t know how one would judge this and so haven’t made a prediction for this one.
http://predictionbook.com/predictions/1670
I don’t know how one would judge this and so haven’t made a prediction for this one.
Thanks for putting that up. I hadn’t been aware of PredictionBook, so I’ve just made an account and posted a more precise prediction there myself.
Hopefully my comments and importation of predictions will lead to more PB awareness on LW.