“Your books betrayed you, Potter,” said Severus, still in that voice stretched tight by a million tons of pull. “They did not tell you the one thing you needed to know. You cannot learn from stories what it is like to lose the one you love. That is something you could never understand without feeling it yourself.”
Ok, there’s lots of room between our estimates (35% and 85%) to bet. I propose taking the arithmetic mean of our respective estimates, and betting at 3:2 odds; so I offer $12 against your $8. Offer valid until the next chapter is posted (Jul 1 7pm PST), void if not accepted (by replying with a comment) before then.
Sounds good. Offer accepted. Also, this will either way give me a reason to show up to the next Boston meetup (assuming you are still in the area), which is good because I’ve been busy with other things.
Yep, still in the area. I haven’t seen you in a while and it’ll be good to catch up. (We might or might not get to actually settle the bet, depending on the chapter that’s about to come out, of course; but come to the meetup this Sunday, and the megameetup the weekend after that, either way.)
High-confidence prediction: Chapters 88-89 are Snape’s doing.
What? Snape has been trying to set up Hermione as a heroine. What does he gain by luring her to her death?
from http://www.fanfiction.net/s/5782108/27/Harry-Potter-and-the-Methods-of-Rationality
Note: I’m not sure Snape did it, my instinct is that this is the work of QQ. But Snape has reasons.
How high confidence? http://predictionbook.com/predictions/19862
85%.
Someone please bet this man.
What do you want to bet on that? I’d assign your hypothesis an around 35% chance.
Ok, there’s lots of room between our estimates (35% and 85%) to bet. I propose taking the arithmetic mean of our respective estimates, and betting at 3:2 odds; so I offer $12 against your $8. Offer valid until the next chapter is posted (Jul 1 7pm PST), void if not accepted (by replying with a comment) before then.
Sounds good. Offer accepted. Also, this will either way give me a reason to show up to the next Boston meetup (assuming you are still in the area), which is good because I’ve been busy with other things.
Yep, still in the area. I haven’t seen you in a while and it’ll be good to catch up. (We might or might not get to actually settle the bet, depending on the chapter that’s about to come out, of course; but come to the meetup this Sunday, and the megameetup the weekend after that, either way.)
I unfortunately won’t be able to make it this Sunday, but should be able to get to the megameetup.
Surely you are joking?
If not, I would be very happy to make a bet on that.
I have updated strongly downward on this prediction based on chapters 90-94, especially 94.
Explain your reasoning, please.