Foremost is curiosity. I’ve only really known anything about Bayes Theorem for a month or so, and equipped with this hammer I’ve been looking for nails.
I was also interested in trying to determine just how remarkable this insight power might be and thought that figuring out the posterior probability would give me some insight there. From what I can tell, the number of women who claim intuition so outnumber those who don’t that even if the accuracy in question were 100%, there’d still be a ~58% chance that a woman who has guessed correctly claims special knowledge. So I guess at best I’d know that most people who guess the right answer believe they have special powers.
Strange, it seems my desire to know their accuracy has little to do with my desire to figure out the posterior probability.
In a few sentences, can you explain why you would like to know? What would you know if accuracy was low/high/exactly 50%?
Foremost is curiosity. I’ve only really known anything about Bayes Theorem for a month or so, and equipped with this hammer I’ve been looking for nails.
I was also interested in trying to determine just how remarkable this insight power might be and thought that figuring out the posterior probability would give me some insight there. From what I can tell, the number of women who claim intuition so outnumber those who don’t that even if the accuracy in question were 100%, there’d still be a ~58% chance that a woman who has guessed correctly claims special knowledge. So I guess at best I’d know that most people who guess the right answer believe they have special powers.
Strange, it seems my desire to know their accuracy has little to do with my desire to figure out the posterior probability.