The probability that a wild prediction of the future will be true is low no matter how well reasoned it is. One should take the prior that the future will be insanely different but it is extremely hard to predict how it will be different.
The probability that a wild prediction of the future will be true is low no matter how well reasoned it is. One should take the prior that the future will be insanely different but it is extremely hard to predict how it will be different.