(nods) Yah, I’m familiar with the argument. And like a lot of plausible-sounding-but-false arguments, it sounds reasonable enough each step of the way until the absurd conclusion, which I then want to reject. :-)
Not that I actually doubt the conclusion, you understand.
Of course, I’ve no doubt that with sufficient repeated exposure this particular problem will start to seem intuitive. I’m not sure how valuable that is.
Mostly, I think that the right response to this sort of counterintuitivity is to get seriously clear in my head the relationship between justified confidence and observed frequency. Which I’ve never taken the time to do.
(nods) Yah, I’m familiar with the argument. And like a lot of plausible-sounding-but-false arguments, it sounds reasonable enough each step of the way until the absurd conclusion, which I then want to reject. :-)
Not that I actually doubt the conclusion, you understand.
Of course, I’ve no doubt that with sufficient repeated exposure this particular problem will start to seem intuitive. I’m not sure how valuable that is.
Mostly, I think that the right response to this sort of counterintuitivity is to get seriously clear in my head the relationship between justified confidence and observed frequency. Which I’ve never taken the time to do.