I think a lot of the other comments about communications technology and social media to amplify the loudest voices, without any institutional gatekeepers, are a big part of the problem. The ability to discern what sources are worth trusting is rarer and harder now than ever before. As with the Chinese Robber Fallacy, anyone can now convince a substantial number of people (often including themselves) of almost any even remotely plausible conjecture, and show what looks to most people like a lot of evidence in its support. I see myself still falling for this from time to time, and the only reason I ever catch it feels like some kind of memetic inoculation as a result of reading Scott Alexander’s writings for so long.
Also, since reading the Meaningness post “A bridge to meta-rationality vs. civilizational collapse” a few years ago I’ve started thinking this describes a lot of why people seem to constantly be talking passed each other when it comes to news and politics, instead of to each other. Most of the things we hear on any topic are coming from people who mostly operate in Stage 3 (pre-rational), but know they have been told in many ways not to trust people who try to argue from a stage 4 perspective (rational, systematic). That doesn’t really leave many reliable tools to form a better understanding. Also, this community is one of a very small number of places I’ve ever encountered a significant fraction of people able to operate at stage 5 (meta-rational), which I think is my target for what “raising the sanity waterline” should mean. Without that, there’s no real way to apply even correct rational thinking to the messiness of society.
I think a lot of the other comments about communications technology and social media to amplify the loudest voices, without any institutional gatekeepers, are a big part of the problem. The ability to discern what sources are worth trusting is rarer and harder now than ever before. As with the Chinese Robber Fallacy, anyone can now convince a substantial number of people (often including themselves) of almost any even remotely plausible conjecture, and show what looks to most people like a lot of evidence in its support. I see myself still falling for this from time to time, and the only reason I ever catch it feels like some kind of memetic inoculation as a result of reading Scott Alexander’s writings for so long.
Also, since reading the Meaningness post “A bridge to meta-rationality vs. civilizational collapse” a few years ago I’ve started thinking this describes a lot of why people seem to constantly be talking passed each other when it comes to news and politics, instead of to each other. Most of the things we hear on any topic are coming from people who mostly operate in Stage 3 (pre-rational), but know they have been told in many ways not to trust people who try to argue from a stage 4 perspective (rational, systematic). That doesn’t really leave many reliable tools to form a better understanding. Also, this community is one of a very small number of places I’ve ever encountered a significant fraction of people able to operate at stage 5 (meta-rational), which I think is my target for what “raising the sanity waterline” should mean. Without that, there’s no real way to apply even correct rational thinking to the messiness of society.