completely implausible… seed AI that self-improves in days / months before… anything else… comparable…
People now say that of course they weren’t talking about that scenario as their actual prediction, just something that wasn’t ruled out by their model. Perhaps that’s true, perhaps not
My go-to for historical MIRI/Eliezer perspective on this is Artificial Intelligence as a Positive and Negative Factor in Global Risk (2008) which is expressly ambivalent about takeoff speed, but emphasises (to my view too much to the exclusion of other cases, but not unreasonably) the importance of being able to deal with the fastest plausible cases.
My go-to for historical MIRI/Eliezer perspective on this is Artificial Intelligence as a Positive and Negative Factor in Global Risk (2008) which is expressly ambivalent about takeoff speed, but emphasises (to my view too much to the exclusion of other cases, but not unreasonably) the importance of being able to deal with the fastest plausible cases.