I’m not familiar with Metaculus scoring in detail, but it is POSSIBLE that they are trying to simulate a subsidized rather than an unsubsidized prediction market in order to encourage betting on a wide range of issues rather than just picking off the handful of positions that look most egregiously mispriced.
Update: Metaculus published a document explaining their scoring rule, which seems to say something similar. The key quote is probably this:
Our positive sum Scoring Rule — in which for a given question the total points awarded across users is generally positive — encourages broader participation on more questions by not penalizing forecasters who participate in more questions
I’m not familiar with Metaculus scoring in detail, but it is POSSIBLE that they are trying to simulate a subsidized rather than an unsubsidized prediction market in order to encourage betting on a wide range of issues rather than just picking off the handful of positions that look most egregiously mispriced.
Update: Metaculus published a document explaining their scoring rule, which seems to say something similar. The key quote is probably this: