If one assumes (reasonably, IMHO) that the probability of SIE is monotonic in E_t, then “an elevated growth rate” trivially increases it. It doesn’t increase it super-exponentially, no… it’s merely an exponential increase in the probability of SIE. But exponentials get big suddenly, so I’m not sure why you’re objecting to this.
Under Eth and Davidson’s model – by far the most common and reasonable approach to modelling the SIE – a necessary condition for an SIE is that the growth rate of is itself growing. So “the probability of SIE is monotonic in ” is not true, or rather it’s only weakly monotonic.
What is your definition of an SIE? I’m fairly confident it involves an acceleration that is different from exponential growth in effective compute. Because exponential growth in effective compute has been true for the past decade, but nobody would classify the past decade as an SIE.
SIE = given some initial amount of compute and some level of capabilities, it enters regime where capabilities give it more capabilities, in short amount of time, without increasing the physical amount of compute. It achieves extremely high such levels of capability through this loop.
Growth here might not be actually super exponential, just extremely fast, e.g. in one day from subhuman to extremely superhuman in all domains, beating humans and humanity by extremely wide margin. Breaking previous capability growth trend with nearly vertical line. I would call this SIE.
Now, would it be more likely to happen with 1 P5 Pentium computer, or with 1000 H100s?
That’s the crux, no?
If one assumes (reasonably, IMHO) that the probability of SIE is monotonic in E_t, then “an elevated growth rate” trivially increases it. It doesn’t increase it super-exponentially, no… it’s merely an exponential increase in the probability of SIE. But exponentials get big suddenly, so I’m not sure why you’re objecting to this.
Under Eth and Davidson’s model – by far the most common and reasonable approach to modelling the SIE – a necessary condition for an SIE is that the growth rate of
What is your definition of an SIE? I’m fairly confident it involves an acceleration that is different from exponential growth in effective compute. Because exponential growth in effective compute has been true for the past decade, but nobody would classify the past decade as an SIE.
SIE = given some initial amount of compute and some level of capabilities, it enters regime where capabilities give it more capabilities, in short amount of time, without increasing the physical amount of compute. It achieves extremely high such levels of capability through this loop.
Growth here might not be actually super exponential, just extremely fast, e.g. in one day from subhuman to extremely superhuman in all domains, beating humans and humanity by extremely wide margin. Breaking previous capability growth trend with nearly vertical line. I would call this SIE.
Now, would it be more likely to happen with 1 P5 Pentium computer, or with 1000 H100s?