The expanded loop you’re describing is a chip production feedback loop, a different type of intelligence explosion. It’s possible, but there is AFAICT no evidence of a chip acceleration from AI, and even if it could happen, it is distinct from an SIE because the feedback loop takes place over a much longer time period. When people talk about an SIE, they’re concerned because it could happen quickly, at the speed of software. “Compute makes an SIE more likely” is not true for any reasonable definition of SIE,
And anyway, “software intelligence explosion” is a feedback loop when intelligence gets you more intelligence.
This is not true! Lots of things in the economy already meet this criterion. When Apple makes a Mac, they can use those Macs to speed up the process of creating future Macs. A power plant can use the electricity it generates to turn on the lights and make its workers more productive. “The output of a process feeds back in as an input” is a totally mundane condition that has nothing to do with an intelligence explosion.
What distinguishes an SIE is that intelligence alone gets you more intelligence. This leads to the “explosion” part, which like I said is underpinned by super exponential growth. That’s why my argument is about the mechanics of super exponential growth. If “intelligence leads to more intelligence” was capped at exponential growth, it would just be a business as usual scenario since that’s what we have now.
The expanded loop you’re describing is a chip production feedback loop, a different type of intelligence explosion. It’s possible, but there is AFAICT no evidence of a chip acceleration from AI, and even if it could happen, it is distinct from an SIE because the feedback loop takes place over a much longer time period. When people talk about an SIE, they’re concerned because it could happen quickly, at the speed of software. “Compute makes an SIE more likely” is not true for any reasonable definition of SIE,
This is not true! Lots of things in the economy already meet this criterion. When Apple makes a Mac, they can use those Macs to speed up the process of creating future Macs. A power plant can use the electricity it generates to turn on the lights and make its workers more productive. “The output of a process feeds back in as an input” is a totally mundane condition that has nothing to do with an intelligence explosion.
What distinguishes an SIE is that intelligence alone gets you more intelligence. This leads to the “explosion” part, which like I said is underpinned by super exponential growth. That’s why my argument is about the mechanics of super exponential growth. If “intelligence leads to more intelligence” was capped at exponential growth, it would just be a business as usual scenario since that’s what we have now.