Took me a while to get back to you because I wanted to read your whole sequence (linked to me by someone else) before responding.
Anyway, it was far better than anything I wrote, and the thinking was much clearer.
I’m also a bit surprised that I hadn’t seen more discussion about double-halferism. It’s a single, barely comprehensible paragraph on the Sleeping Beauty wikipedia page, and you can barely find any links to it when googling “Sleeping Beauty” or “anthropics.” All this, despite the fact that it’s clearly the correct solution!
Anyway, thank you for the good read. I’m hoping to take a second attempt at this problem that should be a bit more thorough. I think I had gotten most of the way there, reasoning wise, but there were pieces I was clearly missing.
Took me a while to get back to you because I wanted to read your whole sequence (linked to me by someone else) before responding.
Anyway, it was far better than anything I wrote, and the thinking was much clearer.
I’m also a bit surprised that I hadn’t seen more discussion about double-halferism. It’s a single, barely comprehensible paragraph on the Sleeping Beauty wikipedia page, and you can barely find any links to it when googling “Sleeping Beauty” or “anthropics.” All this, despite the fact that it’s clearly the correct solution!
Anyway, thank you for the good read. I’m hoping to take a second attempt at this problem that should be a bit more thorough. I think I had gotten most of the way there, reasoning wise, but there were pieces I was clearly missing.