maximize “number of people who make the correct decision.”
Isn’t that it—if you maximize the number of people who make the correct decision, then its 50⁄50 and you can choose either. If you maximize the number of correct decisions, then you choose tails (2 vs 1). The problem doesn’t specify in enough detail what you are actually trying to maximize.
The problem doesn’t specify, you are correct. But if you’re trying to use this as a guide for figuring out how to assign probabilities to the origins of our universe, then the 50⁄50 reasoning is the correct one.
Yes good point, I hadn’t thought about it exactly that way before. The observers are created/possible after the universe is created so you can’t average across universes. How do you decide when one universe starts and another ends? Light cone? Part of the same inflation bubble even if up to infinitely far away?
Isn’t that it—if you maximize the number of people who make the correct decision, then its 50⁄50 and you can choose either. If you maximize the number of correct decisions, then you choose tails (2 vs 1). The problem doesn’t specify in enough detail what you are actually trying to maximize.
The problem doesn’t specify, you are correct. But if you’re trying to use this as a guide for figuring out how to assign probabilities to the origins of our universe, then the 50⁄50 reasoning is the correct one.
Yes good point, I hadn’t thought about it exactly that way before. The observers are created/possible after the universe is created so you can’t average across universes. How do you decide when one universe starts and another ends? Light cone? Part of the same inflation bubble even if up to infinitely far away?