“No systematic quarantine seemed in place, and only some of the exposed people were even instructed to self-quarantine. Now in light of new information we think it’s very unlikely that this’d end up being a pandemic”
What’s the new information here? It sounds like the information was new to you, which led you to form the impression that this decision was horrifyingly reckless. But upon gaining some more decision about the disease, presumably the same information that the (health expert) decisionmakers already had, you decided it wasn’t reckless?
I have no dog in this fight. Maybe it was reckless. The informed version of you seems to agree with the decision that the health authorities made.
The new information is the next sentence after your quote :)
But sure seems like pure luck rather than careful risk-benefit analysis; we only learned about the low contagiousness from negative tests after the cruise ship passengers were sent home.
playing Russian roulette may or may not be a good decision ex post, but it’s certainly a poor decision ex ante.
“No systematic quarantine seemed in place, and only some of the exposed people were even instructed to self-quarantine. Now in light of new information we think it’s very unlikely that this’d end up being a pandemic”
What’s the new information here? It sounds like the information was new to you, which led you to form the impression that this decision was horrifyingly reckless. But upon gaining some more decision about the disease, presumably the same information that the (health expert) decisionmakers already had, you decided it wasn’t reckless?
I have no dog in this fight. Maybe it was reckless. The informed version of you seems to agree with the decision that the health authorities made.
The new information is the next sentence after your quote :)
playing Russian roulette may or may not be a good decision ex post, but it’s certainly a poor decision ex ante.