I mostly agree with Vaniver’s predictions. That said, I wanted to add three specific predictions of my own that partially overlap with Vaniver’s.
I predict with medium confidence (60%) we’ll see something promised in the near term (where near term is defined on medical/clinical trial scales not software company time scales, so next few [3] years) targeting neuro-degenerative diseases. For example, Alzheimer’s, Parkinson’s, and strokes all seem like decent candidates.
I predict with lower confidence (~30%) there will be some sort of discussion of something longer term that promises to enhance or augment healthy humans, with no concrete product or timeline specified. I add the second clause, even though it makes the overall prediction less likely, because I realized I’d be surprised if an enhancement was in development and wanted to specify that as part of my prediction.
I predict with lower confidence (30%) that all products discussed will be invasive, where invasive can include things that don’t require surgery but still have to be ingested/injected.
Scoring my predictions, I’d say I was right on 1 and 3, and mostly right on 2. On 2, Musk discussed his idea of merging with AI, which is pretty clearly augmentation, but no concrete timelines for implantation in healthy humans was given.
I mostly agree with Vaniver’s predictions. That said, I wanted to add three specific predictions of my own that partially overlap with Vaniver’s.
I predict with medium confidence (60%) we’ll see something promised in the near term (where near term is defined on medical/clinical trial scales not software company time scales, so next few [3] years) targeting neuro-degenerative diseases. For example, Alzheimer’s, Parkinson’s, and strokes all seem like decent candidates.
I predict with lower confidence (~30%) there will be some sort of discussion of something longer term that promises to enhance or augment healthy humans, with no concrete product or timeline specified. I add the second clause, even though it makes the overall prediction less likely, because I realized I’d be surprised if an enhancement was in development and wanted to specify that as part of my prediction.
I predict with lower confidence (30%) that all products discussed will be invasive, where invasive can include things that don’t require surgery but still have to be ingested/injected.
Scoring my predictions, I’d say I was right on 1 and 3, and mostly right on 2. On 2, Musk discussed his idea of merging with AI, which is pretty clearly augmentation, but no concrete timelines for implantation in healthy humans was given.