I am still skeptical of the strength of “MNM” effects. Control systems with huge lag times are infamously unstable. Are most people really able to judge whether they should be scared or not based on the R value from a week or two ago, which they don’t even know but have to eyeball from the trend in cases?
People are looking at numbers of infected and dead, the bigger the numbers the scarier it is.
When the numbers are down a lot, they believe it’s over.
I don’t think having a particularly accurate understanding is necessary for this back and forth.