There’s a counterargument to the AGI hype that basically says—of course the labs would want to hype this technology, they make money that way, just because they say they believe in short timelines doesn’t mean it’s true. Specifically, the claim here is not that the AI lab CEO’s are mistaken, but rather that they are actively lying, and they know AGI isn’t around the corner.
What actions have frontier AI labs taken in the last year or two that wouldn’t make sense, given the above explanation? Stuff like GDM’s merger or OpenAI (reportedly) operating at a massive loss. Ideally these actions would be reported on by entities other than those companies themselves, in order to help convince skeptics. I’ve definitely seen stuff like this around but I can’t remember where and the search terms are too vague.
I’ve also tried using Deep Research for this, but it doesn’t seem to understand the idea of only looking at actions that are far more likely in the non-hype world than the hype-world, talking about things like investor decks projecting high returns that are very compatible with them hyping themselves up.
I think the actions of GDM, Meta, and OpenAI are all extremely consistent with thinking that AI will be very economically valuable technology, but we won’t see AGI in a few years.
There’s a counterargument to the AGI hype that basically says—of course the labs would want to hype this technology, they make money that way, just because they say they believe in short timelines doesn’t mean it’s true. Specifically, the claim here is not that the AI lab CEO’s are mistaken, but rather that they are actively lying, and they know AGI isn’t around the corner.
What actions have frontier AI labs taken in the last year or two that wouldn’t make sense, given the above explanation? Stuff like GDM’s merger or OpenAI (reportedly) operating at a massive loss. Ideally these actions would be reported on by entities other than those companies themselves, in order to help convince skeptics. I’ve definitely seen stuff like this around but I can’t remember where and the search terms are too vague.
I’ve also tried using Deep Research for this, but it doesn’t seem to understand the idea of only looking at actions that are far more likely in the non-hype world than the hype-world, talking about things like investor decks projecting high returns that are very compatible with them hyping themselves up.
I think the actions of GDM, Meta, and OpenAI are all extremely consistent with thinking that AI will be very economically valuable technology, but we won’t see AGI in a few years.