Personally, I am most confident in 1, then 4, then 3, then 2 (in each case conditional on all the previous claims)

Oops. A previous version of this comment was wrong, so I edited it. The author’s confidence can be written as:

P(1)≥P(4|3,2,1)≥P(3|2,1)≥P(2|1)

P(1)≥P(4|3)≥P(3|2)≥P(2|1)

Also, independent of the author’s confidence:

P(1)≥P(2)≥P(3)≥P(4)

Oops. A previous version of this comment was wrong, so I edited it. The author’s confidence can be written as:

P(1)≥P(4|3,2,1)≥P(3|2,1)≥P(2|1)

P(1)≥P(4|3)≥P(3|2)≥P(2|1)

Also, independent of the author’s confidence:

P(1)≥P(2)≥P(3)≥P(4)