Exercise/technique: Ask Jeeves v. 2000.0 (adapted from the “Clairvoyant” exercise in “An Elementary Approach to Thinking Under Uncertainty”)
Imagine that you have on your smartphone a nearly perfect version of the now-defunct Ask Jeeves program. This program can answer literally any question you might ask of it. In fact, it is so advanced that it can answer questions about things that have not happened yet! However, the program has one flaw, which is that it has no ability whatsoever to interpret or infer the meaning behind what you are asking.
Thus, if you ask Jeeves “Will product X be a success?” it will be unable to answer. If, on the other hand, you ask it “How many people will buy product X?” it will return a swift and precise response.”
Similarly, “Will my trip to Bali be safe?” is insufficiently precise, while “Will I avoid all of the following:
suffering any injury or sickness requiring medical expenses greater than 20 dollars
being threatened by death or severe bodily injury
being detained for more than six hours
being killed
on my trip to Bali, and if not which of the above will be violated?” is much better-specified, though it might not line up precisely with your personal definition of what is and isn’t safe!
A good rule of thumb is that most questions that could not be asked to this advanced version of the Jeeves program are insufficiently specific. Before asking a question, ask yourself whether you could ask Jeeves the same thing; if you can’t, consider being more specific.
(Fun bonus exercise—“How many people will buy product X” may be insufficiently specific. Can you guess why? Answer is rot13d below:
Exercise/technique: Ask Jeeves v. 2000.0 (adapted from the “Clairvoyant” exercise in “An Elementary Approach to Thinking Under Uncertainty”)
Imagine that you have on your smartphone a nearly perfect version of the now-defunct Ask Jeeves program. This program can answer literally any question you might ask of it. In fact, it is so advanced that it can answer questions about things that have not happened yet! However, the program has one flaw, which is that it has no ability whatsoever to interpret or infer the meaning behind what you are asking.
Thus, if you ask Jeeves “Will product X be a success?” it will be unable to answer. If, on the other hand, you ask it “How many people will buy product X?” it will return a swift and precise response.”
Similarly, “Will my trip to Bali be safe?” is insufficiently precise, while “Will I avoid all of the following:
suffering any injury or sickness requiring medical expenses greater than 20 dollars
being threatened by death or severe bodily injury
being detained for more than six hours
being killed
on my trip to Bali, and if not which of the above will be violated?” is much better-specified, though it might not line up precisely with your personal definition of what is and isn’t safe!
A good rule of thumb is that most questions that could not be asked to this advanced version of the Jeeves program are insufficiently specific. Before asking a question, ask yourself whether you could ask Jeeves the same thing; if you can’t, consider being more specific.
(Fun bonus exercise—“How many people will buy product X” may be insufficiently specific. Can you guess why? Answer is rot13d below:
“Ubj znal crbcyr jvyy ohl cebqhpg K” unf guerr xrl synjf:
Svefg, gurer vfa’g n gvzrsenzr fcrpvsvrq, juvpu jbhyq boivbhfyl or snveyl eryrinag gb gur fvghngvba.
Frpbaq, vg jbhyq yvxryl or zber hfrshy gb xabj ubj znal gbgny pbcvrf ner fbyq engure guna ubj znal crbcyr ohl gur cebqhpg—vs bayl bar crefba ohlf gur cebqhpg, ohg gung crefba vf n pbecbengr ohlre jub chepunfrf 10,000 pbcvrf, gung ercerfragf na beqre bs zntavghqr zber fnyrf guna n gubhfnaq crbcyr rnpu ohlvat bar pbcl rnpu.
Svanyyl, gur cevpr urer vf yvxryl irel eryrinag gb ubj znal crbcyr chepunfr gur cebqhpg.
Gurersber, n zber hfrshy irefvba bs gur dhrfgvba jbhyq or “Ubj znal pbcvrf bs cebqhpg K jvyy jr fryy ng cevpr L qhevat gvzr vagreiny M?”.)
The question didn’t specify a price.
I’m not quite sure what you’re referring to here, can you be more specific?
The rot13 material gives two reasonable answers, but it’s also important to have an estimate of how the price will affect the sales.
Good point, added.