In the hindsight these people (Soros, Buffett etc.) may sound like geniuses, and maybe some of them are, there is no way to know.
Buffett has been so good for so long that the only plausible way it could be random chance is if he secretly possesses a doomsday device that he activates whenever his investments go sufficiently sour.
Agree for most other successful investors, though.
If I start flipping a coin and half the population guesses heads and half tails and I eliminate the half that guesses wrong, I will eventually wind up with one person with an unprecedented prediction streak.
Yes, but Buffett continued his success for a long time after he’d already been publicly noticed. If you start with a million people, it shouldn’t surprise you if someone gets 20 heads in a row- but if they get 30, you need to look for other hypotheses.
I’m not saying buffet isn’t a good investor. Just that he is far less good than the popular narrative. Investor success follows a pareto distribution. There’s always going to be someone like Buffet.
Buffett has been so good for so long that the only plausible way it could be random chance is if he secretly possesses a doomsday device that he activates whenever his investments go sufficiently sour.
Agree for most other successful investors, though.
If I start flipping a coin and half the population guesses heads and half tails and I eliminate the half that guesses wrong, I will eventually wind up with one person with an unprecedented prediction streak.
Yes, but Buffett continued his success for a long time after he’d already been publicly noticed. If you start with a million people, it shouldn’t surprise you if someone gets 20 heads in a row- but if they get 30, you need to look for other hypotheses.
I’m not saying buffet isn’t a good investor. Just that he is far less good than the popular narrative. Investor success follows a pareto distribution. There’s always going to be someone like Buffet.