a simple modification...Thanks to this modification, she got the same answer as if she had used SIA.
Assume it’s −40 degrees Celsius outside. Thanks to this assumption, it’s also −40 degrees Fahrenheit, we got the same answer as if we were using Fahrenheit.
In any case, if it’s an unlikely observation, it probably won’t happen twice, so she’s about twice as likely to make it if she wakes up twice.
If it’s a likely observation, such as noting that she is awake, then she is twice as likely to make it if she wakes up twice.
Cthulhu’s woundings, why?
Assume it’s −40 degrees Celsius outside. Thanks to this assumption, it’s also −40 degrees Fahrenheit, we got the same answer as if we were using Fahrenheit.
If it’s a likely observation, such as noting that she is awake, then she is twice as likely to make it if she wakes up twice.
To show that it gives the same answers.
I showed at the end that this assumption is, for all intents and purposes, always going to happen.
It’s 100% either way. It’s not twice as likely.