I’m at like 30% on fast takeoff in the sense of “1 year doubling without preceding 4 year doubling” (a threshold roughly set to break any plausible quantitative historical precedent).
Huh, AI impacts looked at one dataset of GWP (taken from wikipedia, in turn taken from here) and found 2 precedents for “x year doubling without preceding 4x year doubling”, roughly during the agricultural evolution. The dataset seems to be a combination of lots of different papers’ estimates of human population, plus an assumption of ~constant GWP/capita early in history.
Yeah, I think this was wrong. I’m somewhat skeptical of the numbers and suspect future revisions systematically softening those accelerations, but 4x still won’t look that crazy.
(I don’t remember exactly how I chose that number but it probably involved looking at the same time series so wasn’t designed to be much more abrupt.)
Huh, AI impacts looked at one dataset of GWP (taken from wikipedia, in turn taken from here) and found 2 precedents for “x year doubling without preceding 4x year doubling”, roughly during the agricultural evolution. The dataset seems to be a combination of lots of different papers’ estimates of human population, plus an assumption of ~constant GWP/capita early in history.
Yeah, I think this was wrong. I’m somewhat skeptical of the numbers and suspect future revisions systematically softening those accelerations, but 4x still won’t look that crazy.
(I don’t remember exactly how I chose that number but it probably involved looking at the same time series so wasn’t designed to be much more abrupt.)