Actually, our probability calculations might be substantially ignored when making our decisions.
Participants (health professionals and consumers) understood natural frequencies better than percentages...In studies of alternative formats for presenting risk reductions of interventions, and compared with [Absolute Risk Reduction], [Relative Risk Reduction] had little or no difference in understanding but was perceived to be larger and more persuasive
People got similar understanding from those formats, but chose differently.
...Compared with [Number Needed to Treat], RRR was better understood...was perceived to be larger and was more persuasive
Here people were sensible, at least.
Compared with NNT, ARR was better understood...was perceived to be larger...There was little or no difference for persuasiveness.
People were equally persuaded by those formats, but had different understanding as to what was going on.
Overall there were no differences between health professionals and consumers.
Actually, our probability calculations might be substantially ignored when making our decisions.
People got similar understanding from those formats, but chose differently.
Here people were sensible, at least.
People were equally persuaded by those formats, but had different understanding as to what was going on.
Unfortunate.
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/14651858.CD006776.pub2/abstract
Spin it here!