As a corollary, I think this also pinpoints why the Doomsday argument isn’t magic. Sure, before I see more information, I expect to be halfway through my reference class. But precisely because it doesn’t use much information, this prior is very easy to update. As soon as we have some ideas about models of the world, we should probably just use those models.
As a corollary, I think this also pinpoints why the Doomsday argument isn’t magic. Sure, before I see more information, I expect to be halfway through my reference class. But precisely because it doesn’t use much information, this prior is very easy to update. As soon as we have some ideas about models of the world, we should probably just use those models.