As someone who works in this field, let me add some thoughts:
Marvel is a joke. I put it at less than 10% that they would even beat the NIF record by 2035.
ITER is planned to turn on by 2025, but by now that is late 2025 (“turn on” means “create a plasma that is no more interesting than that in a fluorescent lamp”). From inside channels I know they plan to announce further delays later this year. Even if everything goes according to the present schedule, actual deuterium-tritium operation is planned to start in 2035. They will ramp thing up carefully, there will be no q=10 success on the first try.
Even now, the design of crucial parts of the ITER heating system is not finished.
The design of CFETR is not finished, it is not intended to be a commercial power plant (more of a post-ITER experiment), and the Chinese institute of plasma physics plans to build an intermediate tokamak, called BEST (I kid you not), before they start building CFETR.
As someone who works in this field, let me add some thoughts:
Marvel is a joke. I put it at less than 10% that they would even beat the NIF record by 2035.
ITER is planned to turn on by 2025, but by now that is late 2025 (“turn on” means “create a plasma that is no more interesting than that in a fluorescent lamp”). From inside channels I know they plan to announce further delays later this year. Even if everything goes according to the present schedule, actual deuterium-tritium operation is planned to start in 2035. They will ramp thing up carefully, there will be no q=10 success on the first try.
Even now, the design of crucial parts of the ITER heating system is not finished.
The design of CFETR is not finished, it is not intended to be a commercial power plant (more of a post-ITER experiment), and the Chinese institute of plasma physics plans to build an intermediate tokamak, called BEST (I kid you not), before they start building CFETR.
Don’t confuse Tokamak Energy with the Culham Centre for Fusion Energy, the location of the Joint European Torus. Tokamak Energy merely rents some office space there (possibly in a deliberate ploy to leech credibility?). The successes of JET are not Tokamak Energy’s.