You say that, “I know plenty of business managers and entrepreneurs who have a steady track record of good decisions and wise judgments, and yet they are religious, or they commit basic errors in logic and probability when they talk about non-business subjects.”
You must know different business managers and entrepreneurs than I do. I can think of few if any business managers and entrepreneurs who have a steady track record of good decisions and wise judgments. There are some common positive characteristics I see in the business managers I know, and another group of common characteristics I see in the entrepreneurs I know (nor do the two groups share the same set of common characteristics, I might add) but in neither group are good decisions and wise judgments part of those common characteristics.
I do see a lot of hindsight bias and survivorship bias in both groups though. Out of a large pool of managers and entrepreneurs, the successful ones inevitably attribute their success to personal characteristics and skill, but it’s not at all obvious they aren’t just the lucky ones who happened to stumble into a profitable opportunity. One frequent characteristic of successful entrepreneurs is that they have tried many things, and usually failed at more of them they’ve succeeded at. If they were both rational and able to apply rationality to their plans, you’d expect them to succeed a lot more often.
One frequent characteristic of successful entrepreneurs is that they have tried many things, and usually failed at more of them they’ve succeeded at. If they were both rational and able to apply rationality to their plans, you’d expect them to succeed a lot more often.
How do you know their success rate isn’t much higher than those who aren’t successful, but the base success rate is so low even those who do better are still less than 50%?
Alternately, what if the business equivalent of rapid prototyping is the optimal strategy? Giving up early enough that you can move on to something else can be the best option.
You say that, “I know plenty of business managers and entrepreneurs who have a steady track record of good decisions and wise judgments, and yet they are religious, or they commit basic errors in logic and probability when they talk about non-business subjects.”
You must know different business managers and entrepreneurs than I do. I can think of few if any business managers and entrepreneurs who have a steady track record of good decisions and wise judgments. There are some common positive characteristics I see in the business managers I know, and another group of common characteristics I see in the entrepreneurs I know (nor do the two groups share the same set of common characteristics, I might add) but in neither group are good decisions and wise judgments part of those common characteristics.
I do see a lot of hindsight bias and survivorship bias in both groups though. Out of a large pool of managers and entrepreneurs, the successful ones inevitably attribute their success to personal characteristics and skill, but it’s not at all obvious they aren’t just the lucky ones who happened to stumble into a profitable opportunity. One frequent characteristic of successful entrepreneurs is that they have tried many things, and usually failed at more of them they’ve succeeded at. If they were both rational and able to apply rationality to their plans, you’d expect them to succeed a lot more often.
How do you know their success rate isn’t much higher than those who aren’t successful, but the base success rate is so low even those who do better are still less than 50%?
Alternately, what if the business equivalent of rapid prototyping is the optimal strategy? Giving up early enough that you can move on to something else can be the best option.