I think only a tiny minority of lesswrong readers, believe in cryopreservation.If people genuinely believed in it then they would not wait until they were dying to preserve themselves
I think you need to define your usage of the term “believe in” slightly better. Belief for what percentages of cryo success rate qualify for “belief in cryopreservation”?
If you’re talking about percentages over 90% -- indeed I doubt that a significant number of lesswrong readers would have nearly that much certainty in cryo success.
But for any percentages below that, your arguments become weak to the point of meaningless—for at that point it becomes reasonable to use cryopreservation as a last resort, and hope for advancements in technology that’ll make cryopreservation surer—while still insuring yourself in case you end up in a position that you don’t have the luxury of waiting any more.
Belief is pretty unambiguous—being sure of (100% probability, like cogito ergo sum), or a strong trust (not nearly 90% probability is not belief). So it seems we are in agreement, you don’t believe in it, and neither do most less wrong readers. I agree that based on that argument, whether the probability is 10^-1000 or 75%, is still up for debate.
If that’s your definition of belief then it may not be that relevant. If I there’s a game where someone roles a pair of fair six-sided dice and will give me five dollars if I can guess their sum, my best strategy is to guess 7 even though I don’t by your definition believe that 7 will turn up. In this context this becomes a less than helfpul notation.
Also, if this is what you meant, I’m a bit confused by why you brought it up. Many prominent cryonics proponents give estimates well below 90%. So what point were you trying to make?
I think you need to define your usage of the term “believe in” slightly better. Belief for what percentages of cryo success rate qualify for “belief in cryopreservation”?
If you’re talking about percentages over 90% -- indeed I doubt that a significant number of lesswrong readers would have nearly that much certainty in cryo success.
But for any percentages below that, your arguments become weak to the point of meaningless—for at that point it becomes reasonable to use cryopreservation as a last resort, and hope for advancements in technology that’ll make cryopreservation surer—while still insuring yourself in case you end up in a position that you don’t have the luxury of waiting any more.
Belief is pretty unambiguous—being sure of (100% probability, like cogito ergo sum), or a strong trust (not nearly 90% probability is not belief). So it seems we are in agreement, you don’t believe in it, and neither do most less wrong readers. I agree that based on that argument, whether the probability is 10^-1000 or 75%, is still up for debate.
If that’s your definition of belief then it may not be that relevant. If I there’s a game where someone roles a pair of fair six-sided dice and will give me five dollars if I can guess their sum, my best strategy is to guess 7 even though I don’t by your definition believe that 7 will turn up. In this context this becomes a less than helfpul notation.
Also, if this is what you meant, I’m a bit confused by why you brought it up. Many prominent cryonics proponents give estimates well below 90%. So what point were you trying to make?