seems very plausible that our long-term civilizational trajectory is significantly affected by which type of AGI gets built first
I of course agree, but I’d think this would mostly be an issue of capabilities or goodness of our future society, since there’s not much external to our society that’s getting worse as a result of the transition. Anyway, that seems like maybe one of those definitional issues. I think you’re probably right that there’s some possible changes that aren’t well characterized as being about the capabilities or goodness of our society, so an improvemet in those dimensions aren’t strictly speaking sufficient for a pause to not have been valuable.
I care more about my claim that started with “I just think there’s a decent chance...”. (Which is importantly only asserting a decent chance, not saying that there aren’t plausible ways it could be false.)
I of course agree, but I’d think this would mostly be an issue of capabilities or goodness of our future society, since there’s not much external to our society that’s getting worse as a result of the transition. Anyway, that seems like maybe one of those definitional issues. I think you’re probably right that there’s some possible changes that aren’t well characterized as being about the capabilities or goodness of our society, so an improvemet in those dimensions aren’t strictly speaking sufficient for a pause to not have been valuable.
I care more about my claim that started with “I just think there’s a decent chance...”. (Which is importantly only asserting a decent chance, not saying that there aren’t plausible ways it could be false.)