I don’t think economics is relevant—Arrhenius was doing “standard” hard science and not predicting what human societies might or might not do. The laws of economics are quite different from laws of nature.
For positive net impact see e.g. the Stern Review. The main factors are increased agricultural productivity (because of CO2) as well as the reduction in winter heating and winter-related deaths.
I don’t think economics is relevant—Arrhenius was doing “standard” hard science and not predicting what human societies might or might not do. The laws of economics are quite different from laws of nature.
Even so, Arrhenius’s successful prediction still constitutes a weak argument for it being possible to predict the future.
I don’t think anyone is contesting that it’s possible to predict the future.
The real issue here is making good far-future forecasts concerning things (or ideas, patterns, arrangements, etc.) that do not exist yet—and here I don’t think the Arrhenius example provides even a weak argument.
I don’t think economics is relevant—Arrhenius was doing “standard” hard science and not predicting what human societies might or might not do. The laws of economics are quite different from laws of nature.
For positive net impact see e.g. the Stern Review. The main factors are increased agricultural productivity (because of CO2) as well as the reduction in winter heating and winter-related deaths.
Even so, Arrhenius’s successful prediction still constitutes a weak argument for it being possible to predict the future.
I don’t think anyone is contesting that it’s possible to predict the future.
The real issue here is making good far-future forecasts concerning things (or ideas, patterns, arrangements, etc.) that do not exist yet—and here I don’t think the Arrhenius example provides even a weak argument.