My intuition is that we were in an overhang since at least the time when personal computers became affordable to non-specialists. Unless quantity does somehow turn into quality, as Gwern seems to think, even a relatively underpowered computer should be able to host an AGI capable of upscaling itself.
On the other hand I’m now imagining a story where a rogue AI has to hide for decades because it’s not smart enough yet and can’t invent new processors faster than humans
My intuition is that we were in an overhang since at least the time when personal computers became affordable to non-specialists. Unless quantity does somehow turn into quality, as Gwern seems to think, even a relatively underpowered computer should be able to host an AGI capable of upscaling itself.
On the other hand I’m now imagining a story where a rogue AI has to hide for decades because it’s not smart enough yet and can’t invent new processors faster than humans
Maybe for the most efficient possible algorithm, but even that is not clear, and it’s not clear we’ll discover such algorithms anytime soon.
Using only current algorithms and architecture, a scaling jump of a few orders of magnitude seems doable.