To have an intelligence explosion the light would have to reach out much farther with each generation than the increase of the distance between unknown unknowns. I just don’t see that to be a reasonable assumption.
OK, so I don’t think anyone really knows exactly what is going to happen there. Some things we can see, though. There’s a process of increasing optimisation sophistication. Evolution is getting better at search. The result is synergy.
...and—though we can’t tell for sure—it looks as though we are probably close enough and going fast enough to zoom past human level in maybe a decade or so—provided there are no unforseen setbacks.
OK, so I don’t think anyone really knows exactly what is going to happen there. Some things we can see, though. There’s a process of increasing optimisation sophistication. Evolution is getting better at search. The result is synergy.
...and—though we can’t tell for sure—it looks as though we are probably close enough and going fast enough to zoom past human level in maybe a decade or so—provided there are no unforseen setbacks.