We can easily see the performance advantage of memetic evolution...
I do not doubt that intelligence is superior. But as I have already written in another thread, evolution was able to come up with altruism, something that works two levels above the individual and one level above society. So far we haven’t been able to show such ingenuity by incorporating successes that are not evident from an individual or even societal position.
That example provides evidence that intelligence isn’t many levels above the blind idiot God. Therefore the crucial questions is, how great is the performance advantage? Is it large enough to justify the conclusion that the probability of an intelligence explosion is easily larger than 1%?
To answer this we would have to fathom the significance of the discovery (“random mutations”) of unknown unknowns in the dramatic amplification of intelligence versus the invention (goal-oriented “research and development”) of an improvement within known conceptual bounds.
Hans Moravec has attempted to quantify the performance advantage. Here he claims that machine evolution is proceeding about 10,000,000 times faster than organic evolution did. The machines do have us to crib from if they need to—but still.
I do not doubt that intelligence is superior. But as I have already written in another thread, evolution was able to come up with altruism, something that works two levels above the individual and one level above society. So far we haven’t been able to show such ingenuity by incorporating successes that are not evident from an individual or even societal position.
That example provides evidence that intelligence isn’t many levels above the blind idiot God. Therefore the crucial questions is, how great is the performance advantage? Is it large enough to justify the conclusion that the probability of an intelligence explosion is easily larger than 1%?
To answer this we would have to fathom the significance of the discovery (“random mutations”) of unknown unknowns in the dramatic amplification of intelligence versus the invention (goal-oriented “research and development”) of an improvement within known conceptual bounds.
Hans Moravec has attempted to quantify the performance advantage. Here he claims that machine evolution is proceeding about 10,000,000 times faster than organic evolution did. The machines do have us to crib from if they need to—but still.