I wonder if planning fallacy (or rather, the incentive to not do anything about it by default) is mostly a social phenomenon. Telling a group optimistic estimates of how long it will take a project to get done could help improve the group’s commitment to the project. Telling your teacher and your parents optimistic estimates of how long it’ll take to finish your homework keeps them off your back. Etc. etc.
(Testable prediction: autism should correlate with lack of susceptibility to planning fallacy. Found a random link in support, for what that’s worth.)
This sounds partially true, but I think optimism helps people get started on things even in the absence of groups. Replace “group commitment” by “your own commitment” and “telling other people” by “self-deception” and it still should work.
I wonder if planning fallacy (or rather, the incentive to not do anything about it by default) is mostly a social phenomenon. Telling a group optimistic estimates of how long it will take a project to get done could help improve the group’s commitment to the project. Telling your teacher and your parents optimistic estimates of how long it’ll take to finish your homework keeps them off your back. Etc. etc.
(Testable prediction: autism should correlate with lack of susceptibility to planning fallacy. Found a random link in support, for what that’s worth.)
People are much better at not committing the planning fallacy (in the underestimating direction, at least) when estimating other people’s timelines for a given task, so I’d say absolutely it’s a social thing. There’s immense social pressure to give a rosy view of yourself; you wouldn’t want to disappoint, would you?
This sounds partially true, but I think optimism helps people get started on things even in the absence of groups. Replace “group commitment” by “your own commitment” and “telling other people” by “self-deception” and it still should work.