Yup, I misunderstood you, but I think we’re on the same page now.
The project being unlikely to succeed just goes into the EV calculation when comparing it to other projects. Secret projects also, definitionally, have fewer downsides, and my guess is that this latter term often dominates the nil modal outcome, since downsides for a huge swath of research are so high,
Yup, I misunderstood you, but I think we’re on the same page now.
The project being unlikely to succeed just goes into the EV calculation when comparing it to other projects. Secret projects also, definitionally, have fewer downsides, and my guess is that this latter term often dominates the nil modal outcome, since downsides for a huge swath of research are so high,