I don’t have any comments about the math, but your post makes me think of Taleb. His whole shtick is how we (collectively) think very badly about unlimited-upside or unlimited-downside asymmetric problems, even with modern statistical tools. I have recently started poking around again here.
There are of course also his famous books, like Black Swan or Antifragile. I found his style interfered with the message, so I abandoned ship and went for the papers instead—but if you have a strong stomach for intellectual preening, it might be worth reading for you. He wrote a few essays available on Edge, too.
I don’t have any comments about the math, but your post makes me think of Taleb. His whole shtick is how we (collectively) think very badly about unlimited-upside or unlimited-downside asymmetric problems, even with modern statistical tools. I have recently started poking around again here.
There are of course also his famous books, like Black Swan or Antifragile. I found his style interfered with the message, so I abandoned ship and went for the papers instead—but if you have a strong stomach for intellectual preening, it might be worth reading for you. He wrote a few essays available on Edge, too.